|The Academy Award of Merit|
And that's because my forte is Oscar history. I know more Oscar trivia than the so-called experts who also seem to make a point based upon a false "fact" in Oscar history. Now, I don't claim to be an expert, but I'm about as close to one as you could probably get. And that's what trips up my predictions: I look at what's happened in similar years and compare it to the current year. But since every Oscar season is its own beast that bites the hand that feebly tries to feed it, I don't get much right.
Yet, that doesn't stop one from trying and trying to find patterns and similarities from one year to the next and seeing how what happened then can apply to now. While that ends up being a simple task come nomination morning and a frustrating exercise leading up to said morning, it's beyond herculean when tackling what's to come more than ten months out from the current year's Oscar nominations. The thing is, though, once you're in all the way (Oscar-wise), you're never getting out again.
So while I do this every year, this is the first that I'm publicizing my year-out "predictions." What makes this incredibly difficult is you never know what movies might get delayed or moved up. Well-regarded casts and crews can turn in a turd while a sleeper indie could become that diamond in the rough. Getting one nominee correct per category is great; get two and that's impressive; three or more and you'd do much better at the horse track than picking Oscar nominees.
Just a quick note: About 90% of these are based upon pedigree, articles, and IMDb synopses. The other 10% is based upon having read scripts or source material.
Okay, time to embarrass myself...