23 February 2015

Predicting the 88th Academy Awards, or: A Lesson in Hating Yourself

If you've been following along this blog as on-and-off as I've been posting, you might be aware of my interest in the Oscars.  I just enjoy delving into the history of the Academy and seeing how each year's winners act as a snapshot of Hollywood at that point of time.  Of course, like everyone I don't agree with or like many of the films and performances considered Oscar-worthy, but since who wins or loses has no affect on me and my life I don't see the point in complaining (at least not too much...).

Anyway, as I am such a big Oscar historian -- I prefer that term versus fan because my mind's like a steel trap in regards to winners and nominees and I'd almost like just a press release of winners instead of a ceremony -- every year I do a year-out predictions.  It's mostly pointless because there's so many unknown factors about movies' release dates and receptions and whatever else.  But it's fun because it's something I like to do.  No matter how wrong I am:  See last year when I correctly predicted 18 out of 93 nominations (it's just under 20%, so perhaps I'm not too terrible).


So without further ado or suspense (or explanation), here are my predictions for the 88th Academy Awards with predicted winners in bold.  Keep in mind that shifting release dates, production delays, and other acts of God (or Harvey Weinstein) can render any and all films obsolete with these predictions.


PICTURE
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Freeheld
In the Heart of the Sea
The Light Between Oceans
Miles Ahead
Mr. Holmes
The Revenant

DIRECTOR
Derek Cianfrance, The Light Between Oceans
Bill Condon, Mr. Holmes
Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

LEAD ACTOR
Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Jason Segel, The End of the Tour

LEAD ACTRESS
Blythe Danner, I'll See You in My Dreams
Julianne Moore, Freeheld
Rooney Mara, Carol
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Alicia Vikander, The Light Between Oceans

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Miles Ahead
Laura Linney, Mr. Holmes
Ellen Page, Freeheld
Naomi Watts, The Sea of Trees

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Alda, Bridge of Spies
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Guy Pearce, Genius
Michael Shannon, Freeheld 
Billy Bob Thornton, Our Brand Is Crisis

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Carol
The End of the Tour
The Light Between Oceans
Mr. Holmes
The Revenant

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies
Freeheld
Irrational Man
Miles Ahead
The Sea of Trees

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Bridge of Spies
In the Heart of the Sea
The Revenant
The Sea of Trees
Spectre

FILM EDITING
Bridge of Spies
In the Heart of the Sea
Miles Ahead
The Revenant
Spectre

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Crimson Peak
Far From the Madding Crowd
In the Heart of the Sea
The Light Between Oceans
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
Far From the Madding Crowd
In the Heart of the Sea 

SCORE
Carol
In the Heart of the Sea
The Light Between Oceans
The Revenant
The Sea of Trees 

SONG
Florence Foster Jenkins
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part II
Inside Out
Spectre
Straight Outta Compton

SOUND MIXING
Avengers: Age of Ultron
In the Heart of the Sea
Jurassic World
The Revenant
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

SOUND EDITING
Avengers: Age of Ultron
In the Heart of the Sea
Jurassic World
Spectre
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

VISUAL EFFECTS
Ant-Man
Avengers: Age of Ultron
In the Heart of the Sea
Jurassic World
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
In the Heart of the Sea
The Revenant
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

==========
And to make the process either easier or more convoluted, here's my breakdown of predicted nominations per film (with predicted wins in bold):

In the Heart of the Sea (11 nominations, 3 wins)
Picture
Director - Ron Howard
Cinematography
Film Editing
Production Design
Costume Design
Score
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Visual Effects
Makeup & Hairstyling

The Revenant (9 nominations, 4 wins)
Picture
Director - Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Lead Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio
Supporting Actor - Tom Hardy
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Film Editing
Score
Sound Mixing

Bridge of Spies (7 nominations, 1 win)
Picture
Director - Steven Spielberg
Lead Actor - Tom Hanks
Supporting Actor - Alan Alda
Original Screenplay
Cinematography
Film Editing

Carol (6 nominations, 1 win)
Picture
Lead Actress - Rooney Mara
Supporting Actress - Cate Blanchett
Adapted Screenplay
Costume Design
Score

The Light Between Oceans (6 nominations, 1 win)
Picture
Director - Derek Cianfrance
Actress - Alicia Vikander
Adapted Screenplay
Production Design
Score

Freeheld (5 nominations, 1 win)
Picture
Lead Actress - Julianne Moore
Supporting Actress - Ellen Page
Supporting Actor - Michael Shannon
Original Screenplay

Miles Ahead (5 nominations, 1 win)
Picture
Lead Actor - Don Cheadle
Supporting Actress - Emayatzy Corinealdi
Original Screenplay
Film Editing

Mr. Holmes (5 nominations, 2 wins)
Picture
Director - Bill Condon
Lead Actor - Ian McKellen
Supporting Actress - Laura Linney
Adapted Screenplay

Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens (5 nominations, 0 wins)
Production Design
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Visual Effects
Makeup & Hairstyling

The Sea of Trees (4 nominations, 0 wins)
Supporting Actress - Naomi Watts
Original Screenplay
Cinematography
Score

Spectre (4 nominations, 1 win)
Cinematography
Film Editing
Song
Sound Editing

Avengers: Age of Ultron (3 nominations, 1 win)
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Visual Effects

Jurassic World (3 nominations, 0 wins)
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Visual Effects

Crimson Peak (2 nominations, 1 win)
Production Design
Costume Design

The End of the Tour (2 nominations, 0 wins)
Lead Actor - Jason Segel
Adapted Screenplay

Far From the Madding Crowd (2 nominations, 1 win)
Production Design
Costume Design

Florence Foster Jenkins (2 nominations, 0 wins)
Lead Actress - Meryl Streep
Song

Ant-Man (1 nomination, 0 wins)
Visual Effects

Cinderella (1 nomination, 0 wins)
Costume Design

Genius (1 nomination, 0 wins)
Supporting Actor - Guy Pearce

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part II (1 nomination, 0 wins)
Song

I'll See You in My Dreams (1 nomination, 0 wins)
Lead Actress -- Blythe Danner

Inside Out (1 nomination, 0 wins)
Song

Irrational Man (1 nomination, 0 wins)
Original Screenplay

Our Brand Is Crisis (1 nomination, 0 wins)
Supporting Actor - Billy Bob Thornton

Straight Outta Compton (1 nomination, 0 wins)
Song

==========
And one more breakdown of predicted winners:

PICTUREThe Revenant
DIRECTORAlejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
LEAD ACTOR:  Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
LEAD ACTRESSRooney Mara, Carol
SUPPORTING ACTRESSLaura Linney, Mr. Holmes
SUPPORTING ACTORAlan Alda, Bridge of Spies
ADAPTED SCREENPLAYMr. Holmes
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYFreeheld
CINEMATOGRAPHYThe Revenant
FILM EDITINGMiles Ahead
PRODUCTION DESIGNCrimson Peak
COSTUME DESIGNFar From the Madding Crowd
SCOREThe Light Between Oceans
SONG:  Spectre
SOUND MIXINGIn the Heart of the Sea
SOUND EDITINGIn the Heart of the Sea
VISUAL EFFECTSAvengers: Age of Ultron
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLINGIn the Heart of the Sea

==========
Just to be clear, the above is really an exercise in masochism.  There's no way to be right on anything since reviews and audience response are complete unknowns this far out.  At the very least, it gives me (and hopefully you, too) an idea of the films that might be worth keeping an eye on.  Most folks don't care about the Oscars until mid-January, but for someone like me, it's a year-round thing:  Even if it isn't Oscar season, there's all the history to look at and analyze and consider...  I don't know, I get a kick out of it and since it's only my time I'm investing I couldn't care less if someone else thinks I'm wasting it.  It beats playing a video game for 20 hours a day or wanting to do more than laze about on the couch.



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