02 March 2016

Predicting the 89th Academy Awards -- Now with SOUND!!!

Well, another Oscar season has come and gone.  For many, they will abscond back into their lives and not think about the Academy Awards until maybe September or October at the earliest.  For others, it'll be December or January.  But then there's people like me, for whom the next season begins anew the day after the ceremony.

That's why, for the third year, I'm posting year-out predictions.  I've done these sort of predictions for years, but only started publicizing them (and the inherent wrongness involved with them) for a few years.  And this year there's a podcast incorporated with the futility of prognosticating the tastes of 6,000-plus people ten and a half months out.  It's my first ever podcast, so please forgive the hiccups and glitches and everything else that's not quite right.  It'll get better, I'm sure.  (At least, I hope...)



So, because most will skip this intro and just head straight to the predictions, here are my year-out predictions for the 89th Academy Awards.

29 February 2016

88th Academy Awards Winners

Well, I wasn't expecting to go 22 for 24 like last year, but the 16 for 24 I ended up tossing is kind of sad...  Plus side, I got Mark Rylance.  And that's about it.

I'm about ready to move on this year's Oscars.  I should have my year-out predictions up later this week, so look for that.  I'll have a comparison coming up soon for my 2015 predictions as well, so I've got some work to do...

Anyhow, in case you haven't seen them, here are the winners for the 88th Academy Awards:

Picture
Spotlight

Director
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant

Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Actress
Brie Larson, Room

Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short

Original Screenplay
Spotlight

Cinematography
The Revenant

Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road

Production Design
Mad Max: Fury Road

Costume Design
Mad Max: Fury Road

Score
The Hateful Eight

Song
"Writing's on the Wall," Spectre

Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects
Ex Machina

Makeup & Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road

Foreign Language Film
Son of Saul (Hungary)

Animated Feature
Inside Out

Documentary Feature
Amy

Animated Short
Bear Story

Documentary Short
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Live Action Short
Stutterer


TOTAL OSCAR WINS (feature films)
Spotlight
Picture
Original Screenplay

Mad Max: Fury Road
Editing
Production Design
Costume Design
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Makeup & Hairstyling

The Revenant
Director - Alejandro G. Inarritu
Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio
Cinematography

The Big Short
Adapted Screenplay

Bridge of Spies
Supporting Actor - Mark Rylance

The Danish Girl
Supporting Actress - Alicia Vikander

Ex Machina
Visual Effects

The Hateful Eight
Score

Room
Actress - Brie Larson

Spectre
Song - "Writing's on the Wall"


25 February 2016

88th Academy Award Predictions

So it's a mad-crazy year, right?  The Revenant picks up the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and DGA; Spotlight grabs SAG and WGA; The Big Short sneaks in with the PGA and WGA...  Honestly, whichever one you go with for your own predictions, you can make a strong case.  There's almost no wrong answer (until about 9pm local time on February 28, then we'll know which two -- or even three -- were wrong).  Hell, even Mad Max: Fury Road, with its passionate fan base, could have support that's not shown itself.  For all we know it could've been second in all the guild races.

But there's no point in playing "What if...?" here.  That won't get us anywhere.  So, without prolonging this anymore than need be, here are my predictions for the 88th Academy Awards.  Caveat emptor...

14 January 2016

88th Oscar Nominations

The sidebar has been updated with all of the nominees for the 88th Academy Awards.  But since that might be tough to read at times, here are the nominees in good old post form.

Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Direction
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Song
"Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey
"Manta Ray," Racing Extinction
"Simple Song 3," Youth
"Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
"Writing's on the Wall," Spectre

Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Makeup & Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Foreign Language Film
The Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Theeb (Jordan)
A War (Denmark)

Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy & the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom

Live Action Short
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Stutterer

Documentary Short
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Animated Short
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

13 January 2016

87th Academy Awards Predictions: What a Difference a Year Makes

I probably should've done this last year on January 15 or 16, but I didn't, so whatever (I guess).  Nevertheless, it's still interesting to take a look at how my year-out predictions compared with actual nominations.  I've been doing early predictions for years but the 87th Academy Awards was the fist time I ever publicized the futility that is trying to determine what movies will land and lead to glory and which will waft into the ether, a "could've been a contender."

As has been noted before, I'm probably not the best prognosticator when it comes to... well, most anything, I suppose.  But with the Oscars, especially, I tend to do terribly.  And even though I only missed two out of twenty-four categories on Oscar night (Score and Animated Feature), I consider that a fluke, the exception to the rule.  Then again, perhaps I think I'm terrible at making these predictions because I'm factoring in all my various prognostications:  there's the year-out, the pre-nominations, and pre-awards predictions I'm sorting through when most folks are probably just sticking with picking winners.  But, you know, when you're in, you're in -- and I'm definitely in with Oscar history and stats and info and the like.

Anyhow, let's take a look at how my predictions for the 87th Oscars panned out, from the initial March 2014 "seeing what's to come" predictions to the final pick of the winners in late February 2015.

12 January 2016

88th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions

Okay, I was going to post a comparison of my year-out predictions for the 87th Academy Awards and the actual nominees, but I'm still putting the piece together -- so it's going to wait until later.  Plus, with the 88th Oscar nominations coming our way Thursday, I figured it's better to focus on the present/future and save looking at the past until the dust settles after nominations are announced.  Anyhow, if anyone cares to, you can find the post of my year-out predictions and compare it with the real noms.  But if you have some patience, I will post it, so unless you can't wait, wait.

Now then...  This is has been an unusual year, Oscar-wise.  The National Board of Review came out of the gate to establish our footing, then the New York and L.A. critics spoke up.  And then SAG through everything out of whack.  And then the Golden Globes seemed to get everything back where most of us thought we'd be.  Then the other guilds' nominations started weeding out the third and fourth tier films.  And today (well, January 12, 2016, whenever you're reading this), the DGA more or less confirmed the five front-runners for Best Picture.  You've got to back to 1989 for the last time the Best Picture winner didn't also have a DGA nomination (that'd be Oscar history footnote Bruce Beresford for Driving Miss Daisy), and to the DGA's first awards year of 1948 for the other time (Laurence Olivier for Hamlet).  So that's twice in almost 70 years, and that first time can be overlooked (just like Sunrise winning Artistic Picture at the 1st Oscars).


So we're looking at one of The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury, The Martian, The Revenant, or Spotlight as the Best Picture for 2015.  Of course, knowing that doesn't really help or mean anything when it comes to nominations.  For that, you've got to go in, make some tough choices (and a fool of yourself), and see what films might lead the field in nominations.  Yes, having the most nominations doesn't at all guarantee a Best Picture win, but it doesn't hurt.  


So without further ado, here are my nomination predictions for the 88th Academy Awards.  But before moving on, I should say that I'm not enthused by these predictions -- mostly having so many films with the same amount of higher nominations.  Keep in mind, these are just my picks; if you don't like them, just copy and paste the list, replace your own picks, and post them wherever you like.  In less than 36 hours these become basically meaningless anyhow.



Oh, and if you want to skip the post (which I don't recommend), these predictions are what's currently on the right sidebar. 


07 January 2016

Oscar Time Again

I'm probably one of the worst bloggers ever.  Well, maybe not the worst, but damn near the bottom of a corner in the dark, dank basement of the Internet.  I intend to post more (I think once or twice a week is ideal), but don't; then I commit to at least getting one post done a month, but don't.  I want to..., but I don't.

At least with 2015 I had a legitimate excuse of having started graduate school.  Which, by the way, does end up consuming your life and everything you love about life and living.  Then it comes back for seconds -- a dick move, but there you go.  Still, I should've taken the time between semesters (about 4-6 weeks, depending upon the semesters) and posted more.  I should have. 

So I'm going to try.

I'm working on starting a new project involving a podcast, Oscar-related.  I'm still working out the details and brainstorming ideas about what to do, how to do, who to include, etc.  The bulk of the heavy lifting, though, is done, so now it's just taking the hammer and chisel and trying to form it into some kind of coherent, engaging piece of entertaining and informative listening.  And reading, I'm sure.  I suspect that each podcast will include some kind of written component, either pseudo-transcript or just some added information/trivia.  Like I said, the mold is in place, it's just getting the damn thing out and into the world in a presentable state.

Anyhow, that's the upcoming plan.  Once the pieces and sorted I plan on getting a handful of episodes recorded so I can be working on it ahead of time and not have to worry about much if school starts to overwhelm me (which I'm sure it will).  I'd say keep an eye out for more, but I don't have the best track record of having more in the immediate future...

Okay, moving on...

It's Oscar time again, with nominations for the 88th Academy Awards set to be announced next week Thursday, January 14th.  I've got some preliminary predictions, but I'm waiting to post a final list until after the DGA announces its nominees on the 12th.  I feel okay enough with most of what I'm predicting except for Best Direction, so I want to have a bit more to stand on before going public -- plus, the less I can embarrass myself the better.  Or not, I don't know, some people like watching others fail.  It's a good laugh, I get it.

So to ensure that I'll start posting more regularly, I'm making sure I post this and then post Tuesday and then probably again on Thursday with post-nomination reaction.  Then I'll post again that weekend comparing my year-out predictions to reality (unsurprisingly, it's already looking beyond terrible).  In the meantime, though (as in this weekend), I might dig into my year-out predictions for the 87th Oscars and see how I did.

I know it's pointless (more or less; more more, though), but I like putting together predictions way out because it gives me a chance to see what movies are coming out in the next year -- you know, other than the ones that cost $200 million plus -- and let's me start getting exciting about certain films.  I like that.

All right, so I've got a plan, announced it to the world (that's still paying attention -- I don't why you are, but much thanks for doing so), and I will now follow through on it.  I will.  I will, I will, I will.

Okay.  See you this weekend.