12 January 2016

88th Academy Awards Nominations Predictions

Okay, I was going to post a comparison of my year-out predictions for the 87th Academy Awards and the actual nominees, but I'm still putting the piece together -- so it's going to wait until later.  Plus, with the 88th Oscar nominations coming our way Thursday, I figured it's better to focus on the present/future and save looking at the past until the dust settles after nominations are announced.  Anyhow, if anyone cares to, you can find the post of my year-out predictions and compare it with the real noms.  But if you have some patience, I will post it, so unless you can't wait, wait.

Now then...  This is has been an unusual year, Oscar-wise.  The National Board of Review came out of the gate to establish our footing, then the New York and L.A. critics spoke up.  And then SAG through everything out of whack.  And then the Golden Globes seemed to get everything back where most of us thought we'd be.  Then the other guilds' nominations started weeding out the third and fourth tier films.  And today (well, January 12, 2016, whenever you're reading this), the DGA more or less confirmed the five front-runners for Best Picture.  You've got to back to 1989 for the last time the Best Picture winner didn't also have a DGA nomination (that'd be Oscar history footnote Bruce Beresford for Driving Miss Daisy), and to the DGA's first awards year of 1948 for the other time (Laurence Olivier for Hamlet).  So that's twice in almost 70 years, and that first time can be overlooked (just like Sunrise winning Artistic Picture at the 1st Oscars).


So we're looking at one of The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury, The Martian, The Revenant, or Spotlight as the Best Picture for 2015.  Of course, knowing that doesn't really help or mean anything when it comes to nominations.  For that, you've got to go in, make some tough choices (and a fool of yourself), and see what films might lead the field in nominations.  Yes, having the most nominations doesn't at all guarantee a Best Picture win, but it doesn't hurt.  


So without further ado, here are my nomination predictions for the 88th Academy Awards.  But before moving on, I should say that I'm not enthused by these predictions -- mostly having so many films with the same amount of higher nominations.  Keep in mind, these are just my picks; if you don't like them, just copy and paste the list, replace your own picks, and post them wherever you like.  In less than 36 hours these become basically meaningless anyhow.



Oh, and if you want to skip the post (which I don't recommend), these predictions are what's currently on the right sidebar. 


(Just a note that I don't predict the short categories, Foreign Language Film, or Documentary.  There are way too many variables to consider and those films are typically more difficult to see and accurately compare.)


Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Director
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Jacob Tremblay, Room

Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Carol
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs

Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Sicario
Spotlight

Cinematography
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Editing
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Spotlight

Production Design
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
The Danish Girl
The Martian

Score
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road

Song
“Better When I’m Dancin’,” The Peanuts Movie
“Phenomenal,” Southpaw
“See You Again,” Furious 7
“Simple Song 3,” Youth
“Writings on the Wall,” Spectre

Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Editing
The Hateful Eight
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Visual Effects
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Make-Up
Mad Max: Fury Road
Mr. Holmes


The Revenant

Animated Feature
Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie
=================================================
Here's a breakdown by number of nominations:

9 Nominations
The Martian

8 Nominations
Bridge of Spies               
Mad Max: Fury Road                              
The Revenant   

6 Nominations               
Carol                        
The Danish Girl                       

5 Nominations          
The Big Short
Spotlight

4 Nominations
The Hateful Eight             
Room                          
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 

3 Nominations
Inside Out                    
Jurassic World                
Steve Jobs         

2 Nominations           
Cinderella                    
The Good Dinosaur             
The Peanuts Movie             
Sicario       

1 Nomination                
Anomalisa
Brooklyn                      
Creed                         
Crimson Peak                  
Ex Machina                    
45 Years                     
Furious 7
The Good Dinosaur                
Mr. Holmes                    
99 Homes   
Shaun the Sheep Movie                   
Southpaw                      
Spectre                       
Trumbo                        
Youth                         
=================================================
And here's a film-by-film breakdown of nominations:

Anomalisa (1)
Animated Feature

The Big Short (5)
Picture
Director - Adam McKay
Supporting Actor - Christian Bale
Adapted Screenplay
Editing

Bridge of Spies (8)
Picture
Director - Steven Spielberg
Supporting Actor - Mark Rylance
Original Screenplay
Cinematography
Editing
Score
Sound Mixing

Brooklyn (1)
Actress - Saoirse Ronan

Carol (6)
Picture
Actress - Cate Blanchett
Supporting Actress - Rooney Mara
Adapted Screenplay
Cinematography
Costume Design

Cinderella (2)
Production Design
Costume Design

Creed (1)
Supporting Actor - Sylvester Stallone

Crimson Peak (1)
Costume Design

The Danish Girl (6)
Picture
Actor - Eddie Redmayne
Actress - Alicia Vikander
Production Design
Costume Design
Score

Ex Machina (1)
Supporting Actress - Alicia Vikander

45 Years (1)
Actress - Charlotte Rampling

Furious 7 (1)
Song - "See You Again"

The Good Dinosaur (1)
Animated Feature

The Hateful Eight (4)
Supporting Actress - Jennifer Jason Leigh
Original Screenplay
Score
Sound Editing

Inside Out (3)
Animated Feature
Original Screenplay
Score

Jurassic World (3)
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Visual Effects

Mad Max: Fury Road (8)
Picture
Cinematography
Editing
Score
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Visual Effects
Makeup

The Martian (9)
Picture
Director - Ridley Scott
Actor - Matt Damon
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Production Design
Costume Design
Sound Editing
Visual Effects

Mr. Holmes (1)
Makeup

99 Homes (1)
Supporting Actor - Michael Shannon

The Peanuts Movie (2)
Animated Feature
Song - "Better When I'm Dancin'"

The Revenant (8)
Picture
Director - Alejandro G. Inarritu
Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio
Cinematography
Production Design
Sound Mixing
Visual Effects
Makeup

Room (4)
Picture
Actress - Brie Larson
Supporting Actor - Jacob Tremblay
Adapted Screenplay

Sicario (2)
Original Screenplay
Cinematography

Southpaw (1)
Song - "Phenomenal"

Spectre (1)
Song - "Writing's on the Wall"

Spotlight (5)
Picture
Director - Tom McCarthy
Supporting Actress - Rachel McAdams
Original Screenplay
Editing

Star Wars: The Force Awakens (4)
Production Design
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Visual Effects

Steve Jobs (3)
Actor - Michael Fassbender
Supporting Actress - Kate Winslet
Adapted Screenplay

Trumbo (1)
Actor - Bryan Cranston

Youth (1)
Song - "Simple Song 3"

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