25 February 2016

88th Academy Award Predictions

So it's a mad-crazy year, right?  The Revenant picks up the BAFTA, Golden Globe, and DGA; Spotlight grabs SAG and WGA; The Big Short sneaks in with the PGA and WGA...  Honestly, whichever one you go with for your own predictions, you can make a strong case.  There's almost no wrong answer (until about 9pm local time on February 28, then we'll know which two -- or even three -- were wrong).  Hell, even Mad Max: Fury Road, with its passionate fan base, could have support that's not shown itself.  For all we know it could've been second in all the guild races.

But there's no point in playing "What if...?" here.  That won't get us anywhere.  So, without prolonging this anymore than need be, here are my predictions for the 88th Academy Awards.  Caveat emptor...


First off, I have no ideas for the short film categories.  Sometimes the best movie wins, sometimes the flashiest one wins.  It's basically a crap shoot, so pick what you like.  I have no insight to offer.

Also, I didn't get to all of the Documentary and Foreign Language Film nominees (I know, I know...), so I'd just be going with the consensus in both cases:  Amy and Son of Saul.  And there's no point in thinking anything but Inside Out is winning Animated Feature.

Fortunately, my bread and butter (at least knowing history and stats) is with the feature film categories.  Not that that means I have any decent predictions, but at least in these 18 categories I have a lot of knowledge to fall on.  (That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Star Wars pulls off four or even five wins.)

Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Prediction:  Mad Max: Fury Road
My Pick:  Mad Max: Fury Road 

Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Prediction:  Star War: The Force Awakens
My Pick:  Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Prediction:  Mad Max: Fury Road
My Pick:  Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Prediction:  Mad Max: Fury Road
My Pick:  Mad Max: Fury Road

Song
"Earned It," Fifty Shades of Grey
"Manta Ray," Racing Extinction
"Simple Song 3," Youth
"Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
"Writing's on the Wall," Spectre

Prediction:  "Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
My Pick:  "Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground

Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Prediction:  The Hateful Eight
My Pick:  Bridge of Spies

Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Prediction:  The Danish Girl
My Pick:  Mad Max: Fury Road

Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Prediction:  The Danish Girl
My Pick:  The Martian

Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Prediction:  The Big Short
My Pick:  Spotlight

Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Prediction:  The Revenant
My Pick:  The Revenant

Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Prediction:  Spotlight
My Pick:  Spotlight

Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Prediction:  The Big Short
My Pick:  Room

Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Prediction:  Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
My Pick:  Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Prediction:  Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
My Pick:  Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

(NOTE:  Supporting Actor is typically presented first.  A win by Bale, Hardy, or Ruffalo could be a strong indicator of the eventual Best Picture winner, as well as portend a possible sweep.)

Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Prediction:  Brie Larson, Room
My Pick:  Brie Larson, Room

Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Prediction:  Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
My Pick:  Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Director
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Prediction:  Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
My Pick:  Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Prediction:  The Revenant
My Pick:  Spotlight


PREDICTION BREAKDOWN  
Picture:  The Revenant
Director: Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Actor:  Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Actress:  Brie Larson, Room
Supporting Actor:  Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Supporting Actress:  Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Adapted Screenplay:  The Big Short
Original Screenplay:  Spotlight
Cinematography:  The Revenant
Film Editing:  The Big Short
Production Design:  The Danish Girl
Costume Design:  The Danish Girl
Score:  The Hateful Eight
Song:  "Til It Happens to You," The Hunting Ground
Sound Mixing:  Mad Max: Fury Road
Sound Editing:  Mad Max: Fury Road
Visual Effects:  Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Makeup and Hairstyling:  Mad Max: Fury Road
Foreign Language Film:  Son of Saul
Animated Feature:  Inside Out
Documentary Feature:  Amy
Animated Short:  World of Tomorrow
Documentary Short:  A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Live-Action Short:  Ave Maria

4 Wins
The Revenant -- Picture, Director, Actor, Cinematography

3 Wins
The Danish Girl -- Supporting Actress, Production Design, Costume Design
Mad Max: Fury Road -- Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling

2 Wins
The Big Short -- Adapted Screenplay, Editing

1 Win
Bridge of Spies -- Supporting Actor
The Hateful Eight -- Score
The Hunting Ground -- Song
Room -- Actress
Spotlight -- Original Screenplay
Star Wars: The Force Awakens -- Visual Effects


No comments:

Post a Comment